Plenty of caution is advised betting on domestic knockout football these days and the FA Cup third round taking place this weekend is no different.
There is undoubtedly value to be found among the 32 ties but second-guessing managers whose priority is improving their side’s current league position is a difficult game and I’m keeping stakes to a minimum.
Wigan host League One side Bournemouth at the DW Stadium on Saturday and home boss Roberto Martinez’s focus is surely on preserving the Latics’ Premier League status.
An awful run of results, the latest of which was a 4-0 defeat by Manchester United, has seen Wigan plummet in the English top flight and their defensive record will be of particular concern to the Spaniard.
It is now 22 goals conceded in 12 matches in front of their own fans this season and Bournemouth must travel north with more than a sniff of causing an upset.
Wigan have slipped into the relegation zone on the back of eight defeats in 11 matches and, with huge clashes on the horizon against fellow strugglers Fulham, Sunderland and Southampton, there is every chance Martinez will utilise his squad.
Wigan crashed out at this stage of the competition last term to League Two side Swindon and it was only in 2010 when Notts County won at the DW Stadium.
Just over 5,000 fans witnessed that reversal and Eddie Howe’s visitors are unlikely to be intimated arriving, as they do, unbeaten in 16 matches.
It is 12 wins in that period for Bournemouth and Howe will have every confidence his defence can withstand any Wigan onslaught after four consecutive clean sheets, in which they have picked up 10 points.
I’m having a small play on the Cherries and I also like leading scorer Lewis Grabban to find the net once more.
Grabban has scored nine times in his previous 13 matches in English football’s third tier and Wigan have not kept a clean sheet against lower league opposition in their six previous matches in the FA Cup.
1pt Back Bournemouth (vs. Wigan) @ 4.75 (various)
1.5pts Back Lewis Grabban Anytime Scorer @ 3.75 (various)