Euro 2012 is almost upon and it’s time to unearth some of the best pre-tournament value on offer, the majority of which is found in the most unlikely places.
In the outright market, headed by Spain and Germany (I much prefer the defending European and World Champions over Joachim Low’s up-and-comers), not much appeals at the prices and therefore my attention is turned elsewhere.
The next three weeks look set to feature a host of matches that excite but I think it’s possible to pinpoint which contests might feature the most, or fewest, goals in the early stages and I first up am keen on Group C to be the lowest scoring at 4.00.
Comprising of Spain, Italy, Croatia and Ireland, I think the Euro 2008 and World Cup 2010 winners will qualify with something to spare but they have never been that free-scoring, even against modest opposition in their pomp, and their three rivals are all capable defensively.
While Italy, under manager Cesare Prandelli, are not cut quite from the same cloth as previous Azzurri sides, avoiding defeat will remain their priority and they still possess one of the games’ great stoppers in Gianluigi Buffon.
Ireland, too, having conceded just three goals in their previous 14 matches, are significantly better at the back than in the creative third and it is hard to see Trapattoni’s men being too adventurous either.
Ireland’s opening clash with Croatia is key to both nation’s chances of progressing and if this bet is to fail then it might just be down to the expansive Croats.
Led from midfield by Luka Modric, Croatia possess any amount of ability but do lack a proven goalscorer and I’m also taking a chance on Ireland qualifying for the last eight.
It’s any one of three, surely, behind the Spanish but Italy have endured a troubled build up, both on and off the pitch, and the value lies in the 5.00 across the board about Trap masterminding yet another assault on a major tournament.
Sticking with the Irish, I also think the 2.20 offered by Blue Square on them shipping no more than four goals in their three group games is wrong.
Ireland’s emphasis will be firmly on keeping clean sheets and, with Richard Dunne marhsaling the defence ahead of the magnificent Shay Given, I think they’ll be able to restrict even the Spanish in their bid to make the knockout stage.
Player of the Tournament betting is fraught with dangers, we really need to be finding the winning nation to start with, but two players appeal at the prices and both would have pivotal roles to play for their respective sides should they go all the way.
While I expect Spain to lift the trophy, they do share the love and it’s extremely hard to predict which of their galaxy of stars will shine brightest. In contrast, it is difficult to imagine Bastian Schweinsteiger not featuring heavily for Germany should they triumph and the 23.0 with Bwin is attractive enough.
A key man for both club and country, Bastian will be looking to make up for his Champions League heartache with Bayern Munich, when he missed a crucial penalty in the shootout loss to Chelsea, and could just steal the show.
At 17.0 in the outright, Italy are fairly readily passed over but Andrea Prilo was the standout player in Serie A this season for unbeaten Juventus and the Italian World Cup winner is too big at 81.0 in the same market.
There are any thousands of markets on offer for Euro 2012 and the final selections come from the country top scorer markets where several players look overpriced to me.
Ashley Young (England, 8.00), Andreas Iniesta (Spain, 17.0) and Tomas Rosicky (Czech Republic, 13.0) all play in more centrally advanced roles for their country than their club sides and that doesn’t appear top have been factored into their respective odds.
Rosicky, certainly, looks the pick and the Czech captain enjoyed a fine end to the season. Milan Baros is an injury doubt too and Rosicky is very much the main man for his country.
In a poor side, one goal could well be enough to force at least a dead-heat while he is likely to feature as a threat at set-pieces.
2pts Back Group C Lowest Scoring @ 4.00 (various)
2pts Back Ireland To Qualify @ 5.00 (various)
5pts Back Ireland to Concede 4 Group Goals or Less @ 2.20 (Blue Square)
1pt Back Bastian Schweinsteiger (Player of the Tournament) @ 23.0 (Bwin)
1pt Back Andrea Pirlo (Player of the Tournament) @ 81.0 (various)
1pt Back Ashley Young Top England Scorer @ 8.00 (188 Bet)
1pt Back Andreas Iniesta Top Spain Scorer @ 17.0 (Blue Square)
1pt Back Tomas Rosicky Top Czech Republic Scorer @ 13.0 (Bet 365)