Home advantage has been just that in the Champions League knockout stages so far this season and I am expecting more of the same in France on Tuesday.
Lyon were too bad to be true last week in Germany when comprehensively beaten by Bayern Munich, the 1-0 score line flattered them, but Claude Puel’s side are a different proposition altogether on home soil and I expect them to give their opponents plenty to think about.
Lyon were overrun in the early stages of the contest at the Allianz Arena but they sorely missed Jean-Alain Boumsong and the return of the former Newcastle defender will be key. Boumsong will partner Cris in defence and the hosts should be significantly stronger at the back as they bid to keep Arjen Robben at bay.
Robben, along, of course, with Lionel Messi has been the star of the tournament in this Champions league campaign and once again proved Bayern’s match-winner with another splendid strike six days ago.
The Dutch winger will have even greater responsibility heaped upon his shoulders on Tuesday given Franck Ribery’s suspension, the Frenchman was dismissed in the first leg for a horror tackle on Lisandro Lopez, but Louis van Gaal’s men are quite rightly considered favourites to advance with their goal advantage.
While Lyon have failed to win in their previous four matches, and are now well out of the race for top honours in Ligue 1, their European home form over the past decade has been superb and none more so than during this season. Bordeaux were comfortably beaten 3-1 in the last eight, thanks to a brace from Lopez, and it is just one defeat in 13 matches at Stade de Gerland.
That loss, interestingly, came against Bayern back in December 2010 but the mighty Real Madrid and Fiorentina have already been dispatched this term and Lyon have had a full week to prepare having not been on domestic duty this past the weekend.
The freely available 2.50 about a win for the home team isn’t quite enough to warrant a wager but I’m more than happy with the 1.80 on offer about Lyon in the draw no bet market.
I’ll be very surprised if Bayern manage to win on their travels, given their beatings in Bordeaux, Manchester and Florence already during the campaign, and the bet appears to have very little downside.
We’ll get out money back if Lyon fail to find a decisive breakthrough.
2pts Back Lyon (Draw no Bet, vs. Bayern Munich) @ 1.80 (Betfair)