The four final places at Euro 2012 up for grabs over the coming days and the quartet of play-off matches all look set to be tight affairs.
Three of the four favourites to qualify, Ireland, Portugal and Croatia, all play their first legs away from home and if each can avoid defeat then they must fancy their chances of progressing. As a consequence I expect them to be cagey affairs and, with so much at stake, goals could be hard to come by.
I expect Ireland and Portugal to advance fairly comfortably, the latter’s tie versus Bosnia is a repeat of their 2010 World Cup play-off, but things could be tougher for the Croats against Turkey.
Likewise, Czech Republic, so inconsistent in recent years, will not have things all their own way versus Montenegro and the match in Prague could be a turgid encounter.
Montenegro like to keep things tight and if there is a flurry of chances across Europe on Friday evening then I’ll be surprised.
A total of 24 play-off matches have taken place in Europe for either World Cups or European Championships and 17 of the first legs in those ties have featured two goals or less. I expect that trend to continue with fear of failure at the final hurdle so very evident and I’ll be backing the unders across the board.
It should be noted that Stan James are best price about under 2.50 goals in each of the four matches and with odds on offer of 1.53, 1.62, 1.62 and 1.73 respectively a four-fold is the selection.
I’ll be very surprised if at least three don’t oblige and that makes the 6.95 available appealing. It is as short as 5.04 with sportingbet and that’s a big discrepancy.
2pts Back Under 2.50 Goals Four-Fold (Bosnia vs. Portugal, Turkey vs. Croatia, Czech Republic vs. Montenegro, Estonia vs. Ireland) @ 6.95 (Stan James)