It might not have been quite as dramatic as their famous Ashes draw at Cardiff, but England will hope surviving for a draw at Centurion has a similarly galvanising effect. England went on to win at Lord’s and the team’s management will suggest to the players that they can again carry momentum and force a win at Durban.
However, the circumstances are vastly different. James Anderson and Monty Panesar’s heroics at the Swalec Stadium were unlikely and represented a great escape – England looked dead and buried by lunch on the final day of that match.
This time around a draw was expected once Kevin Pietersen and Jonathan Trott laid the foundations and even after the late collapse the situation was not as desperate as it was against the Australians. Paul Collingwood was still at the crease at Centurion and he is the one man you would want there in such a situation. Defeat would have been a crushing blow and, unlike at Cardiff, the draw did not feel like a win.
In truth the effects of momentum can be overplayed. Australia notoriously saved a Test at Old Trafford in 2005 and were promptly beaten at Trent Bridge – they were on the back foot for most of the match and were drained for the next encounter.
Indeed, the outcome of the latest match might not have much impact on England’s second Test odds.
South Africa did not expect to win at Centurion and did not expend too much in trying to force the victory. They know they played the better cricket and will go to Durban with more confidence. Regardless of momentum, England must perform better and perhaps pick a different team.
Meanwhile, away from cricket, the odds for the 2010 Grand National are already starting to get interesting and could be worth keeping an eye on.